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aud/usd daily update

發表於 2003-12-26 18:43:57 | 顯示全部樓層 |閱讀模式
Prices are consolidating within the .7417/38 highs from 17-19 Dec, and with intraday studies positive, risk is for further extension towards the .7452 weekly high of 16 Dec. Maturing background readings, however, see caution into further strength, with any further AUD extension to remain limited. Support is down to .7409, ahead of .7362 and channel support, currently around .7350.

AUD/USD]reversed from 6-year high @.7455 (16Dec) to .7320 on Mon before latest recovery. The danger is for a lower top to be left below .7455 to trigger a deeper setback towards .7265-92. However, given strength of recent rise, a higher low above .7320 would be bullish, triggering poss extn toward .7500/10 (psychological/08Aug97 lower top).
發表於 2003-12-27 11:58:50 | 顯示全部樓層
[18:06 GMT Dec 26] The weaker Dollar and gold prices making fresh 13-year highs
above $413.00 per ounce kept a firm tone to Aussie early on but has yet to      
overcome the 6-year highs at 0.7454. The Dollar reversed course and Aussie      
drifted off to 0.7410 in very light volumes. Yield spreads are rising again at  
154 bps vs. 10-year US Treasuries and remain a pull for offshore investment     
funds. There are a number of option barriers at 0.7460, 0.7475 and 0.7500/10,   
that remain in focus and help to pull prices upward. Short-term trendline      
support at 0.7400 is close, but it takes a move below 0.7350 channel support   
before the uptrend gets its final eulogy.                                       
    Aussie crosses are mostly higher with the exception of AUD/JPY. That pair   
has suffered from the USD/JPY fall, but is still hanging around close to        
unchanged. A rally above 80.25/50 resistance seems little more than wishful     
thinking at this point. AUD/NZD has rallied just above 1.1500 before sliding   
back. Stops are noted above 1.1520 and could trigger the next upward ,momentum  
push targeting 1.16-handles. --

[IFR Forex Watch]

Uptrend is in a position to reassert itself, with daily trend studies having
been reset to neutral levels by the correction down to 0.7325 at the start of
this week. The 0.7455 high from Dec 16th is the gateway to resuming the major
uptrend. Weekly oscillators remain overbought, so there remains some caution
in buying the breakout. Intraday studies leaning lower. (RD/tr) [17:45 GMT]

[0.7409]      22:00 GMT FRI 26 DEC

|                           [ AUD/USD TRADING PAGE ]                           
: 0.7595(M) |monthly low May 97        |sell failure, buy break  | [FLAT at]   
: 0.7560(M) |monthly high Jul 97       |take profit, buy break   | [0.7400]     
: 0.7510(M) |monthly high Aug 97       |flat on a failure        |              
: 0.7455(S) |daily high Dec 16         |sell a failure, buy break|Open|24/12/03

  :         |                TIME 09 09|   

: 0.7400(M) |hrly highs Dec 24         |buy bounce, sell break   |    |         
: 0.7325(S) |daily low Dec 22          |buy a bounce             |TGT |         
: 0.7255(S) |Dec 2 low. 38.2% fibo     |sell a break below       |Stop|         
: 0.7190(M) |spike low Nov 28          |cover on a bounce        |              

[IFR Forex Watch]
發表於 2004-1-27 18:00:10 | 顯示全部樓層
Currency Forecasts - Australia
AUD Bank Forecasts (Published January 2004)
The Australian dollar was one of the darlings of 2003 - having rallied over 30% in the past 12 months. The popularity of carry trades last year helped to spur strong gains in the pair. However, it wasn't just carry trades and dollar weakness that provided strength for the Australian dollar. Instead, strong domestic demand and rising commodity prices helped to keep the economy supported in light of the fragile global economic recovery and the negative effects of a strong currency on exports. In the year ahead, the Australian dollar is expected to remain firm in the near term, buoyed by its high interest rates and tightening bias. Banks expect further dollar weakness in 2004 to prompt further gains in the Australian dollar.


Current Economic Conditions
One of the most resilient economies in 2003
Baring some temporary setbacks in 2003 (SARS and drought), the Australian economy has been fairly resilient compared to its peers. Retail sales rose for the 11th consecutive month in December, as rising wages and home prices helped to fuel increased spending. The labor market has also been strong, with a sharp unexpected drop in the unemployment rate in October from 5.8% to 5.6%. In the latest PMI report, 10 out of 12 sectors reported growth, with optimistic outlooks for the months ahead. The World Cup also brought in a substantial amount of revenue for the country in 2003. Retail sales rose 1.2% during the event, while the overall expected revenues from the event are in excess of A$1billion ($710million). The RBA expects growth to be above trend in the coming year as the farming sector recovers from drought. The strong Australian dollar has helped to ease CPI by 2.6% yoy in the third quarter of 2003.

Do Not Underestimate the Strength of the Labor Market
Australia is truly a worker's paradise. The latest labor market report for the month of December doubled expectations, as another 29,000 people found new jobs in the month of December. The unemployment rate remained at 14-year lows of 5.6%. The strength of the labor market has been closely tied to the strength of the housing market, as a result of strong employment in the construction industry. Job ads have been steadily increasing since June of 2003, which suggests continued strength in the labor market in the early part of 2004. In a recent Roy Morgan poll, 78% of Australians felt secure in their jobs. The health of the labor market is important, as it helps to boost consumer confidence and retail sales. The latest consumer confidence survey for the month of September rose 4.8% to the highest level since July 1994.

Monetary Policy - Australia is the first central bank to hike rates
After keeping interest rates on hold for 17 months, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its benchmark interest rates by 25bp on November 5th and 25bp on December 3rd. Strong domestic demand, robust business investment, buoyant labor and housing markets and an improving global economy forced the RBA to move earlier than any other central bank. The RBA wanted to take preventive measures to insure against a sharp collapse in property values. The RBA's aggressive tactics has helped to send the Australian dollar to six-year highs.

Economic Outlook
Rebalancing of Growth in 2004

A rebound in the farming sector and a recovery of external demand should help boost GDP growth in 2004. Improving conditions in the farming sector should boost new projects and gross fixed investment. The prospect of higher rates may prompt consumers to focus on reducing the large amount of debt that they have accumulated over the past few years. Offsetting this growth will be a moderation in domestic demand as a result of a slowing housing market. The government sees a contraction in domestic demand as unavoidable and has made it their top priority to ensure that when it does occur, it is a gradual and not a sharp contraction. We may actually be seeing signs of this already, as Australian home loan approvals for the month of October (latest release) fell for the first time in 11 months. Expectations for higher rates should continue to be reflected in the November and December data. The expected slowdown in the housing sector should also reduce investment growth in 2004. Nevertheless, despite these offsetting factors, the Reserve Bank of Australia has upwardly revised their forecasts for growth in 2004 to 4%.

Sizeable Budget Surplus Suggests Possible Tax Cuts
The treasury predicts that their budget surplus for 2003/2004 (July-June) will be approximately A$4.6bn, or 0.6% of GDP. This is more than double the initial estimates that they presented back in May. The budget surplus for the 2002/2003 fiscal year was also substantially higher than expected. Taken together, the government has a substantial amount of flexibility to reduce taxes and increase government spending ahead of the elections in 2005. If they choose to do so, it would definitely provide the economy with an additional boost, especially if consumer consumption contracts as a result of the slowing housing market.

More Rate Hikes on the Horizon
In a speech made by RBA Governor Ian MacFarlane on December 8th, continued recoveries in the global economy and Australia's domestic economy no longer provide justification for below normal interest rates. Hence, MacFarlane has expressed the RBA's clear intentions of shifting towards a neutral bias, which would put their cash rate target at approximately 5.5% - 25bp below the current rate. A tightening bias coupled with the highest interest rates amongst the G-10 has fueled strong demand for the Australian dollar. Although, the popularity of carry trades has been declining, the widening yield differential expected in the near term should continue to fuel strong demand for the currency.

What Will Drive The AUDUSD Trend in 2004?
2004 should be a much more moderate year for the AUDUSD. For the time being the AUDUSD should benefit from strong growth, attractive carry and the prospect for higher rates. However, in all likelihood, the 30% rally in the AUDUSD in the past year will not be repeated this year. The AUD is already overbought and although it looks poised to benefit from the prospects of a wider interest rate differential over the US, rising exports and a rebounding farming sector, there are many forces that could reverse the AUDUSD's rally including a strong rebound in US growth, a sharp retracement in Australia's housing market and a mass liquidation of carry trades.

Carry trades were the hottest craze in 2003, but its popularity is expected to wane significantly in 2004. In the year ahead, an improving US economy and the rebound in the US dollar is expected to reduce the popularity of carry trades such as the AUDUSD. As the global equity markets rally and the remaining central banks shift to tightening cycles, investors are expected to turn their interest to higher yielding and riskier assets. This reduced attractiveness of currencies such as the AUDUSD, AUDJPY and AUDCHF is expected to be a big deterrent to AUD strength in 2004. However, a carry trade disaster would be contingent upon the countries like the US shifting to a tightening bias and since the Fed is not likely to raise rates until the second half, hopefully there will be ample time to allow for a more gradual liquidation of carry trades.
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