我还没看这个大文章,不过很不理解,有空写这么多字的,干吗不在过去的8个月用我的方法直接把资金给救出去
:?: :wink:Some thoughts about Gain's
Sorry for the lengthy message. As per one of refcoaccountholders' group members, I post here some analysis and discussions we have had in the legal fund group about Gain's so-called offer. The message is quite long already with my own contribution (sorry about that), so I refrained from including the many other people important contributions and the few dissenting voices. I know, it looks too much like a "one-man show". Free to hit "delete" right away if you want to...
Matteo
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(Message 1: Gain's deal explained)
All,
here is my first-hand interpretation of the deal, and its explanation.
I will meditate on it and see how to improve the following,
but at a first impression this is what makes more sense:
First, I will use numbers, to make it easier to follow, and simplification,
for the same reason. Here they come:
We have a total of 150 million, divided in 15,000 accounts = $10,000
per account (the first 4,000 POC filed that I processed averaged $7,000)
So, to make it simple, suppose all accounts are $10,000. I could work out
a more precise analysis, but this is not the place, plus I don't have
the data (but all filed POC should give me a good sample to work on, in a
couple of weeks). This is just to give you the idea, for now.
Refco profit:
Gains gives Refco 2.5M. Refco makes
150M (our money, kept) + 2.5M from Gains = 152.5M
and gives Gains our names ( no money). Gains has to offer something
for the list, because otherwise Refco would already be making 150M
by keeping all of our money anyway, so why bother? If you haven't realized
that yet, this offer makes it crystal clear.
Gains's gain: Gains so far invested 2.5 millions. Each customer that agrees
to the deal, and sticks to it, will generate for Gain
$20(spread per lot) x 23 (lots traded per month) x 24 (months) = $11,400 of bid/ask spreads
(not to mention interest spreads). To such a successful customer, after two
years (ok, 25% every 6 months, but let's see the offer as a whole for the
sake of simplicity) Gain will give him, as a "present", out of its own pocket , his refco
claim ($10,000). That is, Gain will have made
$11,140-$10,000=$1,140
out of this successful individual. Now, of all customers many will be unwilling or
unable to fund an account and keep up with the trading and spread cost of it. Some
will fall short of it (see DKT2337 file in the "files" section to see what it means).
Again, for simplicity, suppose that either you make it whole or you make it none, and
that 20% of the customers, that is 3,000, will make it. It's 3,000 x $1,140 = 3.3M gain for Gain.
Out of this, Gain will repay the initial 2.5M investment to Refco, administrative and legal fees,
and they will have a basis for future profits with these added customers (not to mention
the money made from interest spreads and spread from all transactions beyond the
minimum required)
Again, numbers have to be adjusted. There are $200,000 accounts as well as $1,000 accounts.
With calm, I can estimate the account distribution and come down to a more precise analysis,
but I think this qualitative explanation makes quite a lot of sense already.
(Message 2: Comments on the proposed deal):
1) Refco keeps all our money. That's not fair. On top
of that, they'll get another 2.5 from Gain. Smart move!
2) Gain's offer can be made by any bank to anybody
(refco o non-refco victim):
I (bank) give you $150. You fund the rest, if you want. If
you generate at least $12,000 (or whatever, to be agreed
upon BEFORE) for me, I give you $10,000 back.
If you generate more than $12,000, I still give you only
$10,000 back. If you generate less, you get less.
[...]
(Message 3: What is a sale):
Gain and Refco are just blatantly making fun of us. In short, the summary of the proposal is this:
What their proposal is:
Refco keeps all our money, gets another 2.5 M from Gain, and will walk away clean.
Gain purchase nothing, gives us $150 bound to doing at least one trade, and then he rewards in the following way: if we generate for them enough trading activity (with our own "new" money, at least initially) they will give us back part of it, up to what was our account with Refco. They could just save the 2.5 million, put up a sign that says "if you were a refco customer and come trade with us, you'll get part of the commission fee back up to your account value".
I don't contest the fact that the buyer should come out profitable, or that we will have to stick to some sort of commitment. I contest that since no sale is taking place, our commitment would have to be quite high in order for the "purchaser" to make a profit.
Here is a sale:
For the sake of this example I make up some numbers as before. An example
of a real sale.
Our combined account value is $150M. The buyer (XYZ) gives Refco $50M and in
exchange Refco gives the buyer all our money (which is and will be ours).
So, in practice, Refco will walk away with a loss of $150-$50M=$100, which is worse than
keeping all our money, but better than giving it all back.
XYZ, in order to come out profitable, has to make up those $50M it gave Refco (since the $150M it got in exchange is not its, is our). Now, $50M divided by
the hypothetical 15,000 $10,000 accounts I used before for the sake of simplicity makes
a bit more than $3,000 per account. (or if you prefer, I can talk in general terms, that is,
$50M divided by $150M is 33%). So each of us has will have to commit with XYZ to
generate for them (in a certain amount of time, with certain methodology) at least 33% of
his account value. For a $10,000 account that is $3,000 or so, that means 150 lots traded,
or else, 6 trades per month, for two years. Much more reasonable.
Not only that, but:
- Our account would be founded in full, from the start (it's an investment for XYZ, they are putting down $50M extra money in that Refco kept), and we can trade with that, no need to fund it with more money (which some of us may unable or unwilling to do).
- In case of failure to meet the minimum requirements there will be a "penalty" of 1/3 of the original Refco account value, to make up for XYZ's loss.
Nobody ever thinks of the possibility of failing to meet the requirements. I don't think all of us are and always be profitable traders. If you put in some money (provided you have some to spare) of roughly the same amount you want to recup (which is needed to be able to generate the needed volume), and you lose it all, or a major part of it, not only you lose fresh money (it may happen, expecially if you try hard to meet some certain trading requirements), but won't get any back either from Gain/Refco.
With a "real sale" it would be quite different.
(Message 4: Comparison between Gain's proposal and other options already available without the need of Gains' coming on the table)
To those not yet convinced that Gains' offer would make any sense among humans only if made on April 1st (fool's day), I am going to present you two parallel scenarios.
We have Mary, Luc, and Carl. They all had $10,000 with refco (if you had $100K read anyway, add just one zero and it's all the same). They think Gain's is a fair deal, or anyway it's "better than nothing" and accept it.
These individuals have twins siblings, Maria, Luca, and Carlo, in the same situation. They, however, don't care about Gains' offer, and open an account with another broker, that offers 1.5 pip spread (there is at least one that I know, probably more, let's call it TRADE1.5)
Mary, John and Carl fund their initial $150 Gain's account with $5,000 of their own money, so they start off with $5,150. Their twin siblings, likewise, fund their accounts at TRADE1.5 with the same amount, so they start off with $5,000.
Mary's and Maria's case:
Mary is a very active trader and a good one. At the end of the 6 months she manages to complete the 23 x 6 = 138 "basic trades". Let's say she even gets to do 150 trades. She has made some money in the process too ($2,000), her account is now $7,150. Gain will rightly add another $2,500 (25% of her refco claim). At the end of the first 6 months she has a total of $9,150 out of the initial investment of $5,000.
Maria, her twin sister, executes the exact same trades as Mary, in precisely the exact moment. But since TRADE1.5 spreads are only 1.5, as opposed to the 3 pips of Gains', at each "rountrip" she makes (or saves, call it as you want) $15 more than Maria. Those $15 add up at each roundtrip, and by the end of the 6 months, since all trades are identical to those of Mary except for the spread, she will have
$5,000 (initial) + $2,000 + 150 x $15 = $9,250
Luc and Luca's case:
Luc is a lazy trader. All those transactions are killing him, it's not his style of trading. At the end he only executes 10x6=60 trades. He makes $1,000 trading (this part doesn't really matter, if you think about it, except that if you LOSE a lot than you won't be able to keep trading at that pace). At the end, he will have:
$5,150 (initial) + $1,000 (net profits) + 25%*2,500 (Gains' "present", see table in the offer) = $6,775
Now you should start to get the idea. Luc's twin brother, Luca, executing the exact same trades at the same time as Luc, with TRADE1.5, will have:
$5,000 (initial) + $1,000 (net profit) + 15*60= $6,900
Carl's and Carlo's cases:
Carl is an extremely active trader. He puts down 300 trades, and so does his twin brother. However, at the end of the 6 month, despite Gains' "present", Carl's account will be much lower than his brother, that is:
Carl: 5,150 + net gains + 2,500 "refco's" = 7,650 + net gains
Carlo: 5,000 + net gains (identical as Carl's) + 15*300 = 9,500 + net gains.
Should I continue the example with the next 18 months, with examples of people that cannot even fund their initial account, with other initial values instead of $10,000, or people that are losing money instead of making it? Or do you get the idea?
Conclusion
Gain's offer is a non-offer. If you like it, well, go and open an account right away with TRADE1.5, it's even a better option. Plus, you won't need to wait for a jude ruling such a non-sense.
Matteo
(Some reply):
[...]
First of all---if someone offered me your hypothetical--either Maria's or Mary's--in order to get out of this debacle---of course I would take either one. If I'm in Mary's shoes, watching Maria mirror my trades, and Maria comes out further ahead, so be it. I am still happy----I got my freaking money back at the end of two years.
You are comparing this hypothetical Maria to a hypothetical Mary, while forgetting that the comparison is not between the two sisters...it's between EITHER sister...and US...people sitting on either an empty unsecured claim....or a phantom legal claim.
[...]
(Message 5: explanation)
[...] you missed one fundamental point. "Maria" is not hypothtetical. There
are brokers that offer 1.5 pips; you can open an account today with
them. If you like Gain's offer, I can give you the name and websites
of these brokers. You don't need to wait for the judge to give you
also Gains' option. You just go there, sign up for an account. You
don't need to be an ex Refco customer. Anybody can open it. In that
sense I see zero value in Gains' offer. If Gain's offer was the only
choice I was left with, I would still NOT take it. I would put my
money in FOREX1.5, and start a new life. It would still be better than
Gain's.
Matteo
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